| Indicator | Price | 1D | 5D |
|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 14.53 | +1.47% | -2.61% |
| DXY | 99.16 | +0.16% | -0.27% |
| US10Y | 4.78 | +0.46% | +0.55% |
| US 3M T-Bill | 3.76 | +0.45% | +0.67% |
| HYG (credit) | 79.16 | -0.06% | -0.27% |
| TLT (bonds) | 82.21 | +0.17% | +0.01% |
| Gold | 4,429.80 | -1.38% | -0.03% |
| Copper | 6.60 | +0.30% | +0.05% |
| S&P 500 | 7,718.60 | -0.38% | +0.42% |
| Oil (WTI) | 91.48 | +0.20% | +6.67% |
| Series | Current | Previous | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Jobless Claims | 206000.0 | 204000.0 | NEGATIVE |
| Fed Balance Sheet ($M) | 6737204.0 | 6730912.0 | POSITIVE |
| Reverse Repo ($B) | 0.675 | 0.702 | POSITIVE |
| M2 Money Supply ($B) | 23218.0 | 23115.2 | POSITIVE |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.35 | 2.35 | FLAT |
| HY Credit Spread (OAS, pp) | 2.65 | 2.66 | POSITIVE |
| IG Credit Spread (OAS, pp) | 0.81 | 0.81 | FLAT |
| CPI (YoY) | 3.54 | 3.73 | POSITIVE |
| Core PCE (YoY) | 3.34 | 3.34 | FLAT |
REGIME. Neutral
EVIDENCE. The market is caught between supportive liquidity flows from rising M2 and a falling Fed balance sheet versus weakening labor data indicated by rising jobless claims. While the 10Y-3M curve remains positive and VIX is low at 14.53, sticky core PCE inflation and a strengthening DXY prevent a clear directional bias, keeping credit spreads flat and gold prices under pressure.
AGREEMENT. I agree with the rules-based signal of Neutral because the conflicting signals between easing financial conditions (liquidity) and persistent inflation/labor weakness create an ambiguous environment without a dominant trend.
POSITIONING. A long-term investor should maintain a balanced portfolio with defensive tilts, as the lack of clear macro momentum suggests limited upside for aggressive risk-taking while avoiding deep cuts that might miss a liquidity-driven rebound.
| Financials | +0.68% |
| Health Care | +0.53% |
| Technology | +0.42% |
| Energy | +0.16% |
| Industrials | +0.08% |
| Consumer Staples | -0.47% |
| Consumer Discretionary | -1.44% |
| Series | Current | Previous | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| TL Policy Rate | 37.0 | 39.14 | CONTEXT |
| USD/TRY | 48.21 | 47.74 | NEGATIVE |
| TR CPI (YoY) | 30.65 | 30.89 | POSITIVE |